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Communications Earth & Environment

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Communications Earth & Environment's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Ecological bleaching trajectories under severe heat stress are only partially captured by acute heat stress assays

Szereday, S.; Chew, L. K.; Henry, J. A.; Zulaikha, N.; Voolstra, C. R.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.14.725291 medRxiv
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Global marine heatwaves have devastated tropical coral reefs, and further mortality is projected under ongoing climate change. Identifying thermally tolerant coral colonies is therefore a priority for conservation, restoration, and research. Portable acute heat stress assays (e.g., CBASS) enable rapid, standardized estimates of coral thermal tolerance under field conditions. However, it remains unresolved whether such experimentally derived metrics (ED5, ED50, DW) predict bleaching and mortality in situ. Here, we quantified acute thermal tolerance metrics for 2,068 coral colonies across 12 common Indo-Pacific species, six months prior to an unprecedented heat stress event in northeastern Peninsular Malaysia and compared experimentally derived ED and DW values to subsequent bleaching severity and mortality in the field. Experimental thermal tolerance metrics explained only a limited proportion of variation in bleaching outcomes and survival. Predictive power varied among species and was higher in slow-growing species. Our findings suggest that while acute heat stress assays capture substantial variation in coral thermal tolerance, their ability to predict in situ outcomes is context-dependent and diminishes under severe thermal stress. Ultimately, in situ coral bleaching under severe heat stress may reduce the discriminatory capacity of acute assay-derived tolerance metrics.

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Meiofaunal communities flourish in Antarctic marine sediments despite the harsh environmental conditions

Garcia-Cobo, M.; Fontaneto, D.; Eckert, E. M.; Sabatino, R.; Cecchetto, M.; Schiaparelli, S.; Martinez, A.

2026-05-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726228 medRxiv
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While Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems support low metazoan diversity, the surrounding marine macrobenthos is rich. However, marine meiofauna remains historically neglected, leaving its diversity patterns unclear. In this study, we used 18S rRNA gene metabarcoding alongside an enhanced taxonomic annotation pipeline to characterize marine meiofauna diversity in the Ross Sea, comparing it to global datasets. We evaluated how depth, habitat type, and mesh size influence community structures to test if habitat heterogeneity drives diversity despite the harsh Southern Ocean conditions. Our results revealed exceptionally high diversity, with metazoans richness comparable to or higher than temperate regions. Although environmental variables had limited effects on taxonomic richness, they significantly shaped community composition, with habitat type explaining the highest proportion of variance. Interestingly, we detected several ASVs 100% identical to North Sea and North Atlantic sequences, likely reflecting the limited taxonomic resolution of the 18S marker rather than global dispersal (the "meiofaunal paradox"). Overall, these findings demonstrate that Antarctic marine sediments host rich meiofaunal communities where ecological processes operate similarly to other global regions, contrasting sharply with depauperate continental Antarctic ecosystems.

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Depth-dependent eDNA abundances across ecosystems inform deep-sea sampling strategies

Herrera, S.; Govindarajan, A. F.; Andruszkiewicz Allan, E.; Francolini, R.; Frates, E.; McCartin, L.; Pittoors, N. C.; Sengthep, M.; Stover, S.; Vohsen, S.; Yang, N.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.12.724363 medRxiv
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Environmental DNA (eDNA) surveys are increasingly used to assess marine biodiversity and inform deep-sea environmental decision-making, including mineral resource management and fisheries oversight. Yet standard low-volume protocols inherited from coastal work may be inadequate at depth, and no quantitative framework links depth and ecosystem context to defensible filtration volume targets. We compiled 841 eDNA samples from eight expeditions across the North Atlantic, Wider Caribbean, and Pacific (surface to 4000 m) to quantify how recoverable eDNA scales with depth and surface productivity, and to derive depth- and productivity-aware sampling targets. Total eDNA concentration declined with depth as a power law, with attenuation exponents (b) modulated by surface productivity: most gradual in eutrophic waters (b = 0.67), intermediate in mesotrophic (b = 0.90), and steepest in oligotrophic systems (b = 1.25); volume-weighted models explained 66-88% of the variance. At a fixed extract-concentration target, required filtration volumes diverged ~7-fold between oligotrophic and eutrophic systems at 200 m and ~38-fold at 4000 m. Conventional Niskin sampling, therefore, undersamples deep-sea biodiversity, particularly in mid- to low-productivity systems. Among laboratory parameters, the assay-specific extract-concentration target exerted greater leverage on required volume than extraction efficiency or elution volume. Volume-aware sampling paired with optimized recovery should be routine in deep-sea eDNA surveys.

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Mapping California's Urban Forest at Scale: An Error-Adjusted Canopy Time Series for Monitoring Change

Pawlak, C. C.; Yost, J. M.; Ventura, J.; Guizan, G.; Arnold, S.; Okin, G. S.; Cavanuagh, K. C.; Fricker, G. A.; Ritter, M. K.; Gillespie, T.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722774 medRxiv
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Statewide tracking of urban tree canopy change is essential for evaluating progress toward policy targets, but detecting real change requires both high-resolution mapping and rigorous uncertainty estimation. We produced a four-year canopy cover time series for all California census-designated places using 60-cm NAIP aerial imagery and a U-Net deep learning model trained with semi-automated LiDAR-derived labels and manually annotated tiles. Canopy cover and change were estimated using stratified, error-adjusted area estimation, enabling comparisons across years. Statewide canopy cover showed a modest negative trend from 2016 to 2022 (Sens slope: -0.60% per year), but confidence intervals included zero across all groups and climate zones, indicating that trends were not statistically distinguishable from no change. Urban canopy cover was consistently lower than non-urban canopy by approximately six percentage points, and canopy cover was highest in the Northern California Coast and lowest in the Southwest Desert. Residential parcels accounted for 55-56% of canopy within incorporated urban areas across all years, indicating that statewide canopy increase goals will require engagement with private landowners. Error adjustment substantially altered canopy estimates relative to raw pixel-count totals, with direct implications for AB 2251 canopy tracking where baselines and targets drawn from unadjusted maps may not reflect true canopy extent. This open-source workflow is transferable to future NAIP acquisition years and other U.S. states, providing a scalable framework for long-term urban forest monitoring.

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Defusing the consumption bomb

Weinberger, V. P.; Duncil, E.; Cook, K. J.; Tallavaara, M.; Manninen, M. A.; Okie, J. G.; Fristoe, T. S.; Burger, J. R.

2026-05-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.06.723357 medRxiv
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For decades, the "population bomb" has dominated environmental discourse, arguing that high fertility rates -especially in the low income countries- drive global environmental problems. However, current trajectories show global declines in population growth rates, especially in higher development index (HDI) nations, which have the highest consumption. Here we showcase evidence for a paradigm shift from the "population bomb" to a "consumption bomb" narrative of the Anthropocene emphasizing the central role of increases in per capita energy use and CO2 production, modulated by current standard metrics for development and affluence, in transforming the Earth system. Defusing and manoaging the consumption bomb requires rethinking economic growth and wellbeing metrics, reallocating resources toward global change retribution and mitigation, especially in low HDI countries, and transitioning from continually-increasing energy expenditures, especially from fossil fuels, toward more equitable and ecologically resilient ways of living. A new sustainability science must move beyond population counts to confront the biophysical and energetic consequences of the changing cultural, economic, and technological systems that sustain ever-growing demands on Earths life-support systems.

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Semi-Annual Cycles in the Biotic Communities of Temperate Aquatic Habitats

Sperlea, T.; Glackin, C. C.; Vogel, L.; Zschaubitz, E.; Nietz, C.; Karsten, S.; Dippner, J. W.; Elferink, S.; Loose, C.; Schröder, H.; Hassenrück, C.; Labrenz, M.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.721460 medRxiv
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Recurring patterns in biosphere dynamics are anchored in daily and seasonal oscillations in abiotic variables driven by Earths obliquity, rotation, and orbit. While circadian and annual biotic cycles are well studied, persistent supra- or subannual cycles in biotic systems are rarely documented globally. Here, we apply a machine learning approach to DNA metabarcoding time series and detect a biotic semi-annual cycle expressed across aquatic communities in temperate regions across taxonomic domains. We propose that this dynamic reflects a semi-annual mode in insolation and is suppressed under conditions of limited nutrients or sunlight. Our results suggest photoautotrophs are central for the aetiology of the biotic SAM, while demonstrating that it is a community-level phenomena not attributable to single species. The regularity of the biotic SAM suggests value for anticipating less predictable ecological events, including phytoplankton blooms. Overall, our results highlight Earth system-scale forcing of local dynamics and reinforce coupling patterns.

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The paradox of neutral carbonate budgets on coral-dominated reefs

Cabrera-Rivera, E.; de Bakker, D.; Molina-Hernandez, A. L.; Medellin-Maldonado, F.; Rioja-Nieto, R.; Medina-Valmaseda, A. E.; Perez-Cervantes, E.; Perry, C.; Alvarez-Filip, L.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.11.724394 medRxiv
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Coral reefs deliver vital services via a complex three-dimensional framework sustained by the balance between calcium carbonate production and erosion, or the net carbonate budget state. In many tropical western Atlantic reefs, ecological decline has reduced carbonate production, yielding near-neutral or negative budgets. Yet some reefs retain high coral cover and, theoretically, should also have high net positive budgets, yet often show modest carbonate accumulation. We used the remote reef of Cayo Arenas in the Campeche Bank, Gulf of Mexico, to test whether in reefs under suboptimal (variable) environmental conditions, high coral production is offset by robust bioeroder communities, producing neutral budgets. At 14 sites, we quantified carbonate producers and bioeroders to estimate gross production, bioerosion, and net budget states. Despite relatively high live coral cover, mean net carbonate budgets were approximately neutral. Crucially, this neutrality arose not from depressed biological activity (as in degraded reefs) but from an active equilibrium: vigorous carbonate production coupled with substantial bioerosion. These reefs, therefore, represent a contemporary, functional reef state in net stasis. Distinguishing active-neutral from impoverishment-neutral regimes is critical for predicting reef trajectories under environmental change and for targeting management, although near-stasis emerging from high carbonate turnover can appear functionally intact yet operate with limited buffering capacity against net carbonate loss.

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Regional ecological variation drives isotopic niche divergence in Pacific nautiloids

Veloso, J. L.; Barord, G.; Dooley, F.; Ward, P. D.

2026-05-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.29.721722 medRxiv
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Nautiloids, the only surviving externally shelled cephalopods, persist in isolated Indo-Pacific reef slopes despite life-history traits that limit dispersal and recovery. Yet the ecological basis of their persistence remains poorly understood. Here, we compare carbon ({delta}13C) and nitrogen ({delta}15N) isotope values from seven nautiloid populations (including Nautilus and Allonautilus) spanning the Pacific. Isotopic niches varied strongly among locations, but only weakly among species, suggesting that geographic context rather than phylogenetic identity is the primary driver of trophic differentiation. Populations from the Bismarck Sea and American Samoa exhibited elevated {delta}15N, consistent with regional nutrient cycling and nitrogen fixation, whereas Great Barrier Reef (GBR) nautiloids displayed unusually broad {delta}13C ranges linked to possible reef-derived carbon subsidies. These results reveal how local oceanography and resource availability shape isotopic niches in long-isolated populations, providing a framework for understanding both the ecological resilience and evolutionary divergence of ancient cephalopods in modern oceans.

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Sustained presence of metabolically active mesophiles in the boiling vent-water of a low-salinity, slightly-alkaline, sulfate-rich geothermal spring characterized by an inequitable ecology of hyperthermophiles and thermophiles

Dutta, S.; Pekety, A.; Chatterjee, S.; Ghosh, J.; Pavan, S.; Mondal, N.; Mondal, M.; Sarkar, J.; Saha, S.; Dhar, A.; Chakraborty, R.; Mazumdar, A.; Ghosh, W.

2026-05-20 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726215 medRxiv
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The slightly-alkaline (pH [~]8.5), boiling ([~]90{degrees}C) vent-water of a Trans-Himalayan geothermal spring, moderately-rich in dissolved solids ([~]1500 ppm), was explored six times over a year. 11 archaeal and 46 bacterial species were detected consistently, while nine bacteria occurred intermittently, in the vent-epicenter featuring a largely-stable physicochemical milieu. All 11 archaea were detected as metagenome-assembled genomes ascribable to Thermoproteota. Of the total 55 bacteria detected, 32 were retrieved as MAGs, 20 as isolates, and three in both forms. Four bacteria could not be classified below the domain-level; three and four belonged to hyperthermophilic (Aquificia) and thermophilic (Thermaceae and Thermoflexaceae) taxa respectively; 27 belonged to taxa having some moderately-thermophilic members; 17 belonged to mesophilic taxa. According to metagenomics, an Aquificia, followed by two Thermoprotei and one Thermoproteales, dominated the microbiome overwhelmingly. Metatranscriptomically, however, the Thermoproteales was most active. Metatranscriptomic signatures envisaged the in situ metabolic status of the 66 species discovered as follows. Among the 18 putative hyperthermophiles and thermophiles identified, 17 rendered wide-ranging activities including growth; one Thermoproteota species had considerable activities sans growth. One new-phylum-level bacterium rendered wide-ranging activities including growth, while three such entities had considerable/minimal activities sans growth. Among the 27 potential moderate-thermophiles discovered, two Armatimonadota and one Thermosynechococcus species rendered wide-ranging activities including growth, 20 had considerable/minimal activities sans growth, whereas four had zero activities. Among the 17 mesophiles identified, 16 rendered considerable/minimal activities sans growth, whereas one had zero activity. Molecular drivers were envisaged from the metatranscriptomic data to explain the trends of inequitable population ecology.

10
Virus-host interactions and viral population dynamics across atmospheric cloud events

Rahlff, J.; Lang-Yona, N.; Lahav, E.; Westmeijer, G.; Das, R.; Buder, K.; Bueschel, R.; Micheel, J.; Eckhardt, S.; Evangeliou, N.; Groot Zwaaftink, C.; van Pinxteren, M.

2026-05-18 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.18.725630 medRxiv
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BackgroundCloud water harbors diverse microbial communities despite its extreme oligotrophic conditions. However, the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of viruses in these transient atmospheric habitats remain poorly understood. Clouds have traditionally been regarded primarily as passive carriers of microorganisms rather than as active ecological environments supporting microbial interactions. In this study, cloud water was sampled at Mount Verde, Cape Verde Islands (744 m a.s.l.). We performed metagenomic analyses of iron-flocculated cloud water alongside genome analyses of a bacterial isolate and metagenome-assembled genomes using established bioinformatic approaches. Viral diversity, virus-host interactions, metabolic functions, genetic adaptations, and viral population dynamics across cloud events were investigated. In addition, UV-B resistance experiments were conducted for a novel cloud-water isolate. ResultsWe isolated 24 cloud water bacteria, including four novel species lineages, and recovered 62 high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes, including 10 novel species lineages. We identified 458 viral operational taxonomic units and 237 virus-host linkages across diverse prokaryotic hosts, revealing active viral predation across diverse bacterial taxa. In addition, CRISPR spacer matches from isolates of novel bacterial lineages such as Deinococcus nubigenus MPC36 were found. Viruses carried genes involved in host adaptation to environmental stressors, including cold-shock response, UV radiation resistance, and osmotic stress. In addition, viral populations exhibited SNP-level microdiversity and shifts in single-nucleotide variant composition across temporally proximate cloud events, indicating rapid population turnover. Experimental characterization of the cloud isolate Curtobacterium nubigenum MPC39 further revealed pronounced resistance to UV-B radiation and the presence of an inducible prophage, Curtobacterium phage vB_CnuS_Cirrus1 assigned to the new viral family Nebulaviridae, which could be validated in transmission electron microscopy. Reconstructed genomes from cloud-associated bacteria encoded carbon monoxide dehydrogenase genes and UV resistance genes, suggesting trace gas metabolism and enhanced UV protection as survival strategies in oligotrophic cloud droplets. In silico replication rates estimated using iRep were consistent with active bacterial replication at the time of sampling. ConclusionsTogether, these findings demonstrate that clouds are not merely passive carriers of microorganisms, but dynamic atmospheric ecosystems in which virus-host interactions shape microbial diversity and contribute to microbial turnover, atmospheric dispersal, and cloud-water biogeochemistry.

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Rodent-driven NO3--N enrichment reshapes amoeba--bacteria co-occurrence and bacterial functional potential in burrow soils

Zhang, C.; Sebbane, F.; Zhang, C.; Whittington, J. D.; Zhao, Y.; Chaolemen, ; Yang, R.; Xu, L.

2026-05-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.30.721900 medRxiv
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Interactions between amoebae and bacteria are increasingly viewed as key drivers of zoonotic pathogen emergence in rodent-dwelling burrows, yet the environmental factors shaping these interactions remain poorly understood. Here, we analyzed soil characteristics and used absolute quantitative high-throughput sequencing to assess microbial communities in active burrow, inactive burrow, and off-burrow soils across four rodent species (marmot, squirrel, gerbil, and vole) in the Hulunbuir grassland of Inner Mongolia, China. This study demonstrates that rodent activity creates chemically distinct soil microhabitats, with nitrate (NO --N) enrichment in active burrow soils consistently observed across rodent species. Elevated soil NO3--N was associated with reduced microbial phylogenetic diversity and reorganization of amoeba-co-occurring bacterial assemblages. Both absolute abundance-based correlations and functional prediction of co-occurring bacteria indicated that amoebae were primarily associated with nitrogen-cycling bacteria in off-burrow soils. In burrow soils, amoebae increasingly interacted with bacterial taxa associated with pathogenicity while retaining ties to nitrogen-cycling taxa. Structural equation modeling and mediation analysis revealed that NO3--N enrichment indirectly linked to increased infectious disease-related functional potential by amoeba-associated bacterial restructuring and coordinated shifts in nitrogen cycling, independent of changes in bacterial abundance. Together, our findings highlight the importance of rodent-driven soil heterogeneity in shaping amoeba-bacteria interactions and suggest that rodent-mediated NO --N enrichment may promote the emergence and persistence of potentially pathogenic bacteria, with broader implications for soil ecosystem functioning and disease-related processes in terrestrial ecosystems.

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Multi-locus metabarcoding and intensive sampling reveal extraordinary diversity carried in the ballast water of a single vessel

Brown, S.; Carney, K. J.; Pagenkopp Lohan, K. M.; Holzer, K. K.; Pilgrim, E. M.; Ruiz, G. M.; Darling, J.

2026-05-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.07.723533 medRxiv
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Understanding risks of biological invasions associated with ballast water (BW) requires full understanding of the biodiversity transported in ballast tanks. Here we characterize the remarkable level of diversity that can be carried in the BW of a single vessel. To maximize our ability to capture BW diversity we: 1) utilized DNA-based methods to describe biodiversity, including both native and non-native taxa; 2) exploited multiple primer sets targeting multiple genomic loci with different expectations for taxonomic coverage; 3) assessed multiple tanks on a single vessel to capture different communities present in different tanks; and 4) sampled those tanks with far higher-than-usual replication both to improve representation of the diversity present and to enable statistical estimation of total richness. Using this approach, we found extraordinarily high diversity associated with a single vessel. Across all loci, we estimate a total of 272 taxa that can be assigned species names; looking more broadly at unnamed molecular operational taxonomic units, our estimates are between 425 and 742 individual taxa, depending on the locus. We confirm that only a fraction of this diversity would be captured with typical sampling efforts. We found that different loci capture different snapshots of biodiversity and that our ability to detect taxa of interest (e.g., non-native species) depends on sampling effort and genomic locus. Our results expand upon previous studies describing highly diverse BW communities and add to a growing literature that demonstrates the value of molecular methods for characterizing those communities and assessing the associated risk of non-native species introduction.

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Hydrological balance of a subalpine forest and the effects of fog presence and forest age

Montagnani, L.; Garcia-Santos, G.; Obojes, N.

2026-05-11 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.07.723430 medRxiv
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Subalpine forests in the Alps are fragile ecosystems that play a crucial role in regional water resources and the local climate. These ecosystems are ecologically significant due to their unique biodiversity and vulnerability to climate change. While several components of the hydrological balance have been studied, the interplay between catchment-scale processes and plot-scale drivers such as fog presence and forest age remains insufficiently understood. To address this, we investigated the hydrological balance of a subalpine coniferous forest catchment at the Renon site in the Italian Alps, integrating observations across spatial scales. The study area includes a mosaic of mature and younger regrowth forest, where both interannual and seasonal variability in precipitation and fog presence are pronounced. At the catchment scale, we quantified above-canopy precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET, measured via eddy covariance at the ICOS tower), stream discharge, and soil moisture dynamics. Within the catchment, we characterised water partitioning using sap flow sensors for tree transpiration, throughfall and stemflow collectors with rain gauges above and below the canopy and epiphyte sampling. Mixed fog-rain events frequently coincided with higher throughfall. However, these changes had a minor effect on soil water storage and catchment discharge in the annual water balance, which was nearly closed. At the plot scale, our results show that tree transpiration was higher in the younger forest structure, while canopy interception is a dominant process in water partitioning in the older forest structure, where lichen abundance likely enhances interception. This study highlights the importance of multi-scale monitoring in temperate mountain forests, where forest age influences water partitioning, and fog presence, though not directly quantified, can still contribute to reducing evaporative processes. Such contributions may gain importance under changing climate conditions, albeit less prominently than in tropical or subtropical cloud forests.

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A prioritization strategy for protecting Conservation Imperatives Sites

Gosling, J.; Dinerstein, E.; Joshi, A. R.; Burgess, N. D.; Mellin, H.; Joppa, L.; Bingham, H. C.; McDermott-Long, O.; Upton, J.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.01.721008 medRxiv
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To prevent species extinctions, targeted action must focus on areas of threatened biodiversity facing intense human pressures. This objective is even more important in the run-up to 2030, the target date to conserve 30% of lands and waters globally. Conservation Imperatives (unprotected terrestrial sites that harbour rare, range-restricted, and threatened species) are critical to preventing imminent species losses. To prioritize among the 16,825 Conservation Imperatives Sites spanning 1.64 million km2, we ranked each site using a prioritization framework based on four criteria: number of threatened species per site; irreplaceability of the site; the proportion of an ecoregions remaining habitat contained in the site; and conversion pressure. Our approach prioritizes 1,667 sites representing 501,426 km2, or 0.37% of Earths terrestrial surface, most in need of urgent protection, with 87.34% of these sites occurring in 20 countries and in 250 ecoregions. This prioritization directly addresses the concern that protected areas must be targeted to protect endangered species, habitats and populations: 33.46% of the prioritized Conservation Imperatives Sites scored higher in irreplaceability than 90% of existing protected areas. Additionally, 51.53% are within 2.5 km2 of an existing protected area, making extending protection or restoring connectivity more feasible. Targeting conservation actions, especially in this small set of countries and ecoregions identified here, would contribute "high quality" areas for biodiversity as part of reaching the 30% coverage target by 2030.

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Wildfire drives a net decrease in forest live biomass across the Western United States

Zarakas, C.; Badgley, G.; Goulden, M. L.; Randerson, J. T.

2026-05-05 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.30.720232 medRxiv
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It remains challenging to quantify recent changes in forest carbon due to lags in forest inventory measurements. The national U.S. forest inventory remeasures plots every five to ten years, so quantifying current carbon stocks using inventory data requires extrapolating from the last time plots were measured. We address this extrapolation challenge by fusing spatially explicit fire disturbance and canopy cover data from Landsat with forest inventory data using a statistical model. We produce annual estimates of live forest carbon across the Western U.S. from 2005 to 2022, and find that live forest biomass increased from 2005 to 2015, and then declined by 5% from 2015 to 2022 -- a signal missed by both official U.S. reporting and Earth system models. The trend reversal was driven primarily by increasing tree mortality from wildfire, and secondarily by slowing rates of carbon accumulation in undisturbed areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for rapidly changing disturbance regimes, and can help to improve jurisdictional carbon accounting and inform the extent to which federal and state climate mitigation strategies can rely on land to achieve net-zero emissions targets. Significance statementPolicy makers need to accurately and rapidly assess the status of the land carbon sink in order to make land management decisions and to assess progress towards climate commitments. However, lags in on-the-ground measurements make it challenging to do so, and it remains an open question whether Western U.S. forests are a net sink or a source of carbon. We fuse on-the-ground forest measurements with remote sensing data to show that live biomass is net declining in Western U.S. forests, and that this trend is driven primarily by increasing wildfire activity. This result challenges the idea that jurisdictions can rely on the land to offset fossil emissions, and supports tracking land carbon trends separately from fossil emissions inventories.

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Global vertebrate hotspots

Farooq, H.; Harfoot, M.; Rahbek, C.; Visconti, P.; Geldmann, J.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724836 medRxiv
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Effective biodiversity conservation requires tools that can identify priority areas under growing human pressures. Building on the concept of global biodiversity hotspots, we present a transparent and repeatable approach to mapping conservation priorities using data for 33,604 species of terrestrial vertebrates from the IUCN Red List. This framework expands the taxonomic scope of previous efforts and integrates updated information on key human-driven threats to biodiversity. We identify that around 13% of Earths terrestrial surface qualifies as vertebrate conservation hotspots, often shaped by distinct combinations of species groups and threats. These results highlight the need for tailored, context-specific conservation strategies. By providing a robust method to guide spatial prioritization, our work supports more effective implementation of conservation targets in a rapidly changing world.

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The Biodiversity of Africa in the Digital Genomics Era: A Systematic Analysis of Institutional Gaps and Benefit-Sharing Trajectories under the Cali Fund.

Shema, Y.; Sinyangwe, S.; Ayodele, F. A.

2026-05-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.725948 medRxiv
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BackgroundA structural governance failure sits at the intersection of international biodiversity law and the digital genomics revolution. The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Nagoya Protocol on Access and Benefit-Sharing (ABS) were designed to ensure that countries of biological origin share equitably in commercial benefits from their genetic resources. Critically, these instruments apply exclusively to non-human genetic resources: plants, animals, fungi, and microbiota. Human genetic resources are deliberately excluded from the CBD and Nagoya ABS framework and are governed separately through bioethics instruments, including the World Health Organization (WHO) framework and the Declaration of Helsinki. This study focuses on non-human digital sequence information (DSI), nucleotide and protein sequence data derived from non-human organisms deposited in open-access databases, which underpins industries generating over USD 1.56 trillion in annual revenue. Africa, hosting approximately 25% of global terrestrial species and nine of the worlds 36 biodiversity hotspots, provides a disproportionate share of the genetic resources from which non-human DSI is derived, yet receives negligible monetary returns because digitisation severs the traceability chain that ABS governance requires. Human genomic data is presented here solely as a secondary indicator of Africas broader infrastructure; it does not constitute the legal basis for Africas modelled allocation share under the Cali Fund. ObjectivesThis study systematically characterises (i) Africas non-human biodiversity endowment as the basis for Cali Fund claims; (ii) ABS governance readiness across 54 African Union (AU) member states; (iii) the commercial trajectories of non-human DSI-dependent industries and projected Cali Fund benefit-sharing flows; and (iv) Africas human genomic representation as a secondary infrastructure indicator, explicitly distinguished from the non-human DSI benefit-sharing argument. MethodsA structured evidence synthesis was conducted following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 reporting elements, where applicable to a secondary data analysis design. Literature was searched across PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, and official repositories of the CBD, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The search was restricted to January 2022 - April 2026 to capture post-Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF) literature. A total of 412 records were identified before screening; 34 peer-reviewed articles and 19 institutional documents met all inclusion criteria. Quantitative Cali Fund scenario modelling used the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC) and KPMG (2024) non-human DSI sector revenue baseline (CBD/WGDSI/2/2/Add.2). The 12.5% net profit margin is a cross-sector proxy from that study; actual margins vary by sector. Africas modelled allocation share (20-25%) is the authors analytical construct based on Africas non-human species richness and hotspot share; it is not an internationally agreed formula. ResultsAfricas non-human biodiversity endowment is exceptional: 25% of terrestrial species, nine of 36 biodiversity hotspots, and the worlds second-largest tropical forest system. Non-human DSI from African genetic resources is a critical input to industries generating USD 1.56 trillion annually, yet Africa contributes a marginal and unmeasured fraction of International Nucleotide Sequence Database Collaboration (INSDC) sequences. As a secondary indicator, 94.48% of genome-wide association study (GWAS) participants as of 2024 were of European ancestry (Corpas et al., 2025); this human genomic data is presented for contextual illustration only and is not the basis for Africas Cali Fund modelled allocation share. Zero African Union member states have enacted legislation explicitly covering non-human DSI in their ABS framework. Africas modelled allocation share ranges from USD 312 million (Scenario A, 20% weight) to USD 5.83 billion (Scenario C, 25% weight) annually. ConclusionsAfrica is among the most biologically rich continents on Earth for non-human life, yet structurally excluded from the benefit-sharing framework the CBD intended to create. The Cali Fund represents the first mechanism capable of correcting this at scale. Realising Africas modelled allocation share requires urgent legislative reform, institutional capacity investment, sequencing infrastructure development, and a coordinated African position at COP17 scheduled in Yerevan, October 2026.

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Recreational climbing alters cliff soil chemistry and plant-associated fungal communities

Garcia Munoz, A.; Krah, F.-S.; Palomar, G.; Lopez-Garcia, A.; Buczek, M.; Lorite, J.; March-Salas, M.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725402 medRxiv
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O_LICliffs are environmentally extreme yet biodiversity-rich ecosystems that harbour specialist plants, many endemic and threatened. Plant persistence in these nutrient-poor substrates may depend on tightly linked soil- and root-associated microbial communities, which remain poorly understood. These interactions may become increasingly important with the global expansion of recreational climbing. While physical climbing impacts on vegetation are documented, potential chemical effects, from the use of climbing chalk (magnesium carbonate), on soil properties and plant-associated microbiota remain unknown. C_LIO_LIWe sampled soils and roots beneath cliff-specialist and generalist plants, and unvegetated soils, across climbed and unclimbed routes in northern, central, and southern Spain. Soil physicochemical properties were quantified, fungal communities were characterized using ITS-metabarcoding, and structural equation modelling was used to disentangle direct and indirect effects. C_LIO_LIClimbing increased soil pH and altered soil chemical properties, driving shifts in fungal diversity and functional composition in soil and roots. The relative read abundance of root-associated symbiotrophic fungi declined, whereas arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and pathogens increased in climbed cliffs. Overall effects were consistent, with cliff-specialist plants mediating nutrient and fungal shifts. C_LIO_LIur findings show that climbing can reshape cliff soil chemistry and fungal communities, with potential cascading consequences for plant functional performance, nutrient dynamics, and ecosystem resilience. C_LI

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Heat and Nitrate Drive Metabolic and Immune Reprogramming Leading to the Collapse of Symbiosis in the Model Sea Anemone Aiptasia

Da-Anoy, J.

2026-05-22 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.05.19.726363 medRxiv
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The maintenance of endosymbiosis in cnidarians depends on the tight regulation of host immunity, cell cycle, and nutrient exchange, yet how these processes are impacted by interacting environmental stressors remains largely unknown. To address this, we employed physiological metrics, gene expression analysis, microbiome characterization, imaging (NF-{kappa}B localization, endoplasmic reticulum ultrastructure, EdU labeling), and stable isotope tracing in the model sea anemone Exaiptasia diaphana to examine the effects of heat and nitrate on these regulatory processes, individually and in combination. Heat treatment led to NF-{kappa}B activation, proteostatic stress, suppression of nutrient exchange, decreased cell-cycle progression, and microbiome restructuring, with all effects more pronounced in symbiotic than aposymbiotic anemones. In symbiotic anemones, nitrate partially offset these heat-induced responses through sustained carbon translocation, suggesting that the presence of symbionts, in conjunction with elevated nitrate, can temporarily buffer host thermal stress. However, prolonged combined exposure resulted in holobiont failure. These findings reveal that while nitrate enrichment can transiently delay the onset of bleaching, it does not preserve the regulatory networks required for symbiotic stability -- underscoring the vulnerability of cnidarian holobionts to the compounding effects of warming and nitrate pollution.

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Elevation shapes alpine snow algal blooms and their influence on albedo reduction

Almela, P.; Hotaling, S.; Giersch, J.; Klip, H. C. L.; Elser, J. J.; Hamilton, T.

2026-05-13 microbiology 10.64898/2026.05.12.724566 medRxiv
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Snow algae darken snowpacks and accelerate melt worldwide. Although elevation strongly structures the physical conditions of mountain snowfields, its influence on snow algal traits and their effects on snowpack reflectance remains unclear. Here, we investigated snow algal composition, cellular traits, and optical properties in summer blooms across an elevational range of 1,059-3,423 m a.s.l. in the western United States, spanning two elevational gradients in the Cascade Range (CA, OR, WA) and the Rocky Mountains (UT, WY, MT). Across all samples (n = 294), snow albedo declined strongly with increasing algal cell density, indicating that total biomass, rather than pigment composition, is the dominant driver of albedo reduction. However, within Sanguina-dominated blooms (117 of 206 samples bloom samples identified across the dataset), neither relative abundance nor algal cell density varied systematically with elevation. Instead, mean cell size increased with elevation, while per-cell pigment concentrations declined, leading to higher astaxanthin:chlorophyll-a ratios driven primarily by reductions in chlorophyll-a per cell. These elevation-dependent shifts in cell size and pigment balance were consistent across both mountain ranges, indicating phenotypic acclimation to increasing environmental stress with elevation. Together, these findings link cellular-scale acclimation of a widespread snow alga to radiative processes shaping mountain snowpacks.